Friday 28 January 2011

A 2D6 Decision

Let's do the math (old habits etc etc) ...


When two traditional 6-sided dice are rolled and totalled, there are 36 (6x6) possible combinations adding up to totals from 2 to 12.  However, 2 and 12 are the least likely totals because there is only one way of getting there … 1+1 or 6+6.  The most likely total is 7 because there are six possible ways of making it.  6 out of 36 is a probability of 16.7% (to the nearest 0.1).  The colours in the chart show why this is, and the eleven possible outcomes are matched to eleven chosen fixtures below.


This is where groundhopping comes into its own – it is always possible to choose a game that means something in the context of the season.  I’ve put games where both teams are involved in promotion or relegation fights for the most likely outcomes, or the mid-table or lower level games as least likely.  I really do want to go to Workington soon, but not necessarily for this particular fixture!


Die 2

v






Die 1          >

1
2
3
4
5
6

1
2
3
4
5
6
7

2
3
4
5
6
7
8

3
4
5
6
7
8
9

4
5
6
7
8
9
10

5
6
7
8
9
10
11

6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Total on 2xd6
Chance
Game
2
2.8%
Workington v Worcester City
(mid table, Conference N)
3
5.6%
Ashton U v Nantwich T
(mid table, Northern Premier)
4
8.3%
Stocksbridge PS v Burscough
(17v12, Northern Premier)
5
11.1%
North Ferriby U v Halifax T
(4v1, Northern Premier)
6
13.9%
Colwyn Bay v Matlock T
(2v3, Northern Premier)
7
16.7%
Tonbridge A v Lowestoft
(6v4, Isthmian Premier)
8
13.9%
Stourbridge v Salisbury C
(5v2, Southern Premier)
9
11.1%
Croydon A v Bury T
(22v2, Isthmian Premier)
10
8.3%
Hastings U v Canvey I
(19v10, Isthmian Premier)
11
5.6%
Frickley v FC United
(20v13, Northern Premier)
12
2.8%
Bognor Regis T v Met Police
(3v1, step 4)

So where am I going?

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