Decision Time - Count the Goals

The venue for my Tuesday night FA Cup Replay hop will be determined by the total number of goals scored in two of tonight’s international friendlies – England U21 v Israel U21 and Brazil v Ghana.  It’s the only way to make them interesting.

The more goals scored, the shorter my journey.  Here’s the detail.

  

Total number of goals scored in the two games	Tuesday’s Fixture
0	Oadby Town v Quorn
1	Wisbech Town v March Town Utd
2	Whyteleafe v Folkestone
3	AFC Sudbury v St Ives Town
4	Southend Manor v Cheshunt
5	Thame United v Newport Pagnell Town
6	Egham Town v Merstham
7	Ardley United v Wembley
8	Hanworth Villa v Bedfont Sports
9 or more	Thrapston Town v Shepshed Dynamo

Thanks to @yappattack for looking up the following odds which I will use to illustrate how it could work.

At the time of writing (5.40pm), Betfair users believe that the most likely score in each match is 2-0 (to England U21 & Brazil respectively) at odds of 7/1 and 13/2.  If the punters are right, the total of four goals will send me to Southend tomorrow night.  The same thing will happen, for example, if both matches end in 1-1 draws.

Meanwhile, William Hill reckon that a total of three goals is most likely in the England game (11/4), with two or three equally most likely (also at 11/4) in the Brazil game.  This would give a total of 5 or 6, sending me either to Thame or Egham.

My hopping fate is therefore quasi-random, and of course the returning Ronaldinho might be in the mood to send me to Thrapston by himself.  We will see.  I really don't want to go to Wisbech in the dark :)


UPDATE 11PM MONDAY NIGHT:
England U21 4 Israel U21 1 & Brazil 1 Ghana 0 - a total of six goals which means that I will pitch up at Egham Town v Merstham.  The teams drew 1-1 last Saturday, with a late Egham equaliser earning them a replay against their higher-graded opponents.